Space & Astronomy/Space and Astronomy (October 1993).iso/mac/TEXT/SPACEDIG/V16_4/V16NO489.TXT

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Date: Mon, 26 Apr 93 05:40:20
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Subject: Space Digest V16 #489
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Space Digest                Mon, 26 Apr 93       Volume 16 : Issue 489

Today's Topics:
                      Commercial Space News #22
                      Space Advertising (2 of 2)

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Date: 24 Apr 93 12:50:52
From: [e-mail]
Subject: Commercial Space News #22
Newsgroups: sci.space

COMMERCIAL SPACE NEWS/SPACE TECHNOLOGY INVESTOR NUMBER 22

   This is number twenty-two in an irregular series on commercial
space activities.  The commentaries included are my thoughts on
these developments.

   Sigh... as usual, I've gotten behind in getting this column
written.  I can only plead the exigency of the current dynamics in
the space biz.  This column is put together at lunch hour and after
the house quiets down at night, so data can quickly build up if
there's a lot of other stuff going on.  I've complied a lot of
information and happenings since the last column, so I'm going to
have to work to keep this one down to a readable length.  Have fun!

CONTENTS:
1- US COMMERCIAL SPACE SALES FLATTEN IN 1993
2- DELTA WINS TWO KEY LAUNCH CONTRACTS
3- COMMERCIAL REMOTE SENSING VENTURE GETS DOC "GO-AHEAD"
4- INVESTMENT FIRM CALLS GD'S SPACE BIZ "STILL A GOOD INVESTMENT"
5- ARIANE PREDICTS DIP IN LAUNCH DEMAND
6- NTSB INVESTIGATES PEGASUS LAUNCH OVER ABORTED ABORT
7- ANOTHER PEGASUS COMPETITOR IS ANNOUNCED
8- GEORGIA LAUNCH SITE DROPPED FROM PLANNING
9- SPAIN'S CAPRICORNIA LAUNCHER STILL PROCEEDING
10- PACASTRO SIGNS LAUNCH RESERVATION WITH SWEDISH SPACE CORP
11- CHINA AND TAIWAN JOINT SATELLITE VENTURE REPORTED
12- SOUTH KOREA ANNOUNCES NATIONAL MOVE INTO SPACE TECHNOLOGIES
13- SPACE TECHNOLOGY INDEXES THROUGH MARCH
FINAL NOTES

ARTICLES
--------------------------------------------------------------------
1- US COMMERCIAL SPACE SALES FLATTEN IN 1993
   The US Department of Commerce projects US commercial space sales
will remain flat in 1993, with current data showing only a 2 percent
growth over 1992.  As published in "US Industrial Outlook 1993"
(which was released in January), revenues from the 1993 US space
business are currently projected to be about $4,890 M.
   In contrast to previous years when US commercial space sales had
shown double digits growth rates, this year's projected results are
driven by the US satellite manufacturing industry, where sales are
projected to drop from 12 satellites worth $1,300 M in 1992 to 7
satellites worth $ 670 M in 1993.  The US Industrial Outlook also
projects U.S. commercial launchers faces flat demand in coming year,
and while predicting that 1993 revenues will increase 10 percent to
$450 M, future sales will be "adversely affected by the downward
revision in Department of Defense launch plans."
   Offsetting flat launch revenues and satellite deliveries,
revenues for fixed and mobile satellite services are projected to
increase to $1,900 M, primarily driven by increased revenues from
broadcast and cable TV networks.  Similarly, remote sensing products
and sales are projected to increase to $250 M in 1993 (up 15%).

 US COMMERCIAL SPACE REVENUES     1989  1990   1991 1992(r) 1993(e)
 Commercial satellites             900 1,000  1,100  1,300     670
 Satellite services                750   800  1,200  1,500   1,900
   Fixed                          (700) (735)(1,115)(1,275) (1,520)
   Mobile                          (50) ( 65)(   85)(  225) (  380)
 Satellite ground equip            790   860  1,350  1,400   1,560
   Mobile equipment                (40)  (85)  (280)  (352)    ???
 Commercial launches               150   570    380    450     450
 Remote sensing data and services  125   155    190    215     250
 Private microgravity research lab  --    --     --     --      60
                                 ===== =====  ======  =====   =====
   TOTAL ANNUAL REVENUES         2,715 3,385   4,220  4,815   4,890
        (r) = revised data for 1992   (e) = estimated data for 1993
   [Commentary: This is the first look at how the US commercial
space industry is expected to do in 1993.  In general, not a bad
report -- with most of the bad news concentrated in the satellite
manufacturing area.  There, changes of only a few satellites worth
$100 M or so apiece can substantially influence the annual
projection.  If we look forward over several years, this market
sector should retain strong sales as US firms have been very
successful in regaining international market share in the satellite
business.
   Furthermore, sales of satellite ground equipment should go up in
the next revision of this data, expected to be released about mid-
year.  Data on mobile satellite ground equipment sales (including
such items as GPS receivers and portable satellite terminals)
appears to be missing from the January data set.  DoC usually
publishes a listing of  "Space Business Indicators" in mid-year, and
the next revision of commercial space revenues should be released
then.  I expect the revised revenues should easily top $5,000 M, if
the mobile satellite ground equipment are added back into the
numbers, and the year should show about a 10% overall market growth.
   Looking beyond this year's data, future markets look quite
promising.  The DoC projects satellite service revenues could top
$3,000 M by 1995 if new mobile satellite services and direct
broadcasting are implemented as planned, and that mobile satellite
station sales are expected to continue to growth at 15-20 % per year
through the mid 1990's.  My numbers are somewhat more pessimistic
for near-term market growth, but I agree the trend should be for
substantial growth in US commercial space sales over at least the
next 5-10 years.  (My pessimism is due to more conservative
assumptions on market capture and growth in LEO communications and
satellite direct broadcasting services.  I don't believe all of the
current players in the yet-to-be-born LEO communications satellite
market and in the yet-to-be-proven direct broadcasting market will
be financial successes, nor that sales growth will be as explosive
as currently projected.)
   It should also be noted this year's DoC data is the first
release to show revenues from privately funded microgravity research
facilities.  The $60 M shown in the Janurary data is primarily for
the Spacehab module, planned for launch in April on the Space
Shuttle, but also hidden in these numbers are the projected first
sales from the COMET orbital launch and recovery experiment module.]

2- DELTA WINS TWO KEY LAUNCH CONTRACTS
   McDonnell Douglas Corporation, which builds and markets the Delta
launch vehicle has won two important launch contracts.  Motorola
Inc. announced in mid February that it had selected the Delta to
launch most of the satellites in the 66-satellite Iridium LEO
communications constellation, and in mid April, McDonnell Douglas
was awarded the USAF Medium Launch Vehicle III contract.
   The launch services contract with Motorola for the Iridium
constellation launch is for at launch of least 45 Iridium
satellites.  Another 21 satellites have been contracted to be
launched by Khrunichev Enterprise in Russian on 3 Proton vehicle
launches.  These 45 satellites planned for the Delta will be
launched 5 at a time,  providing for at least 9 launches.
Additional satellites in the Iridium constellation, such as a
planned on-orbit spares, may also be launched on Delta.  Although
details of the launch services contract were reported to be
negotiation, and not yet final.
   The USAF MLV contract also went to MDC, bidding a variant of
their Delta II launcher.  This contract is only initially worth $7.5
million, but establishes a set of launch options for up to 36
launches, encompassing launches from 1996 through 2002.  These
launches will deploy the next generation of the USAF's Global
Positioning System Block IIR navigation satellites, plus other
programs.  First option for to meet the USAF launch options is
expected to be exercised this year, after which the USAF is expected
to request launches of up to 6 Deltas per year for at least 6 years.
Under this contract the USAF can also request "launch on demand"
services from MDC for the 1996-2002 time period, with a launch to
occur within 40 days of the request.
    [Commentary:  If these two contracts are fulfilled, they should
provide an excellent business base for MDC's Delta launch program
through the turn of the century.  Combined, these two contracts have
a potential for about 45 launches, worth about $2,200 M to MDC, and
sustaining a core business base of $300-400 M/year.  Other contracts
for international and commercial payloads, as well as for NASA
Medium ELV-class payloads, will add to this business base -- keeping
MDC as a viable commerical launch company.
    However, it should be noted there are risk elements in these
contracts.  Motorola's Iridium LEO communications constellation has
not yet received a US Federal Communications Commission license for
operation in the U.S., nor has Motorola lined up all the financing
and financial partners for the Iridium venture.  Without these
approvals or financial backing there will be no Iridium launches.
But, hopefully, these uncertainties will be settled this year.
   Similarly, the USAF MLV III program has been the target of
several Congressional actions which have slowed the production of
the GPS Block IIR satellites and deleted the funding for the MLV III
program in favor of the USAF NLS/"Spacelifter" program.  At this
time, while it appears the MLV III contract will be executed, future
funding for the MLV III and other USAF commercial launch contracts
is being reconsidered as part of national space launch strategy
reviews.  Some opinions expressed from within the Administration and
Congress propose cancellation of all "ELV upgrade" programs
(including the MLV programs) in favor of the proposed "Spacelifter"
program.  Such opinions may have some weight in this year's budget
deliberations, particularly as DoD funds will be more difficult to
find in the shrinking US Defense budget.]

3- COMMERCIAL REMOTE SENSING VENTURE GETS DOC "GO-AHEAD"
   The first commercial license to operate a remote sensing
satellite was approved in early February by the US Department of
Commerce's Office of Space Commerce.  A license was granted to
WorldView Imaging Corporation of Oakland, California to build and
operate a pair of LEO imaging satellites to provide multi-spectral
images of the Earth.
   [Commentary:  There has been little data released on this venture
by WorldView and the DoC, other than the announcement of the
operating and construction license.  This was reported to be at the
request of WorldView.  Most industry speculation identifies this new
venture as a "Star Wars" spinoff, using SDI-type technology to
provide digital Earth sensing data, and heavily integrated into
digital GIS databases for remote sensing/GIS users.  Most probable
customers for this service include exploration geologists,
agricultural planners, and urban planners.
   It is noteworthy this is the first commercial venture under the
1992 Land Remote Sensing Policy Act.  The Act, as passed last
November, provides that remote sensing data gathered from private remote
sensing craft may be sold to users at differing prices.  Prior to
this act, remote sensing data from all satellites had to be sold to
all users at the same prices, and private remote sensing ventures
would have had to sell at the government-set Landsat data prices.
   There are rumors of several other potential commercial remote
sensing ventures working their way through the system at different
stages of development.  I think the large Landsat and SPOT satellite
systems will provide the majority of the satellite remote sensing
data market for the next decade or so.  In contrast to these large,
government-sponsored remote sensing systems, smaller market ventures
such as WorldView and others can exploit market niches and use
innovative technology, and I believe, can find profitability on the
margin.  I predict there may be some very interesting ventures
appearing in the next year or so.]

4- INVESTMENT FIRM CALLS GD'S SPACE BIZ "STILL A GOOD INVESTMENT"
   Wall Street investment house Morgan Stanley thinks General
Dynamic's Space Systems Division could still be a moneymaker,
despite having failed in the last 3 Atlas launches.  In a recent
analyst's report Morgan Stanley said "We are more than ever
convinced that if the company can return the Atlas to its historical
95%-plus success rate, this will become a highly profitable, cash-
generating unit."  Based upon discussions with GD's corporate
management, Morgan Stanley projects that if the Atlas problems are
cleared up the unit could see $70 M in earnings per year by 1995 and
$100 M per year by 2000.  This is based upon GD's projection of
capturing about 10 Atlas launches per year on the world market.
   [Commentary:  Three failures in a row of their launch system has
hurt General Dynamic's Space Systems Division.  Since GD has
restructured to only keep a very few profitable core businesses,
many market pundits have been speculating GD's space business might
be next to be sold.  The Morgan Stanley report indicates GD's Space
Systems Division has some potential as a moneymaker, despite current
problems -- if they can get their act together.  Sales are projected
to be about $560 M in 1993, which will probably generate a loss of
about $25 M.  If GD can capture their projected share of the space
launch market, and if they have managed to clean up the reliability
of their Atlas launchers, then they could generate healthy profits
from those sales.  But until they demonstrate the Atlas Centaur
program is back on track, this division will continue to show
substantial losses.
   In response to the sell-off rumors, in my opinion, this operation
is not a really good candidate for takeover and quick profitability.
To do such a takeover, the current set corporate and divisional
management would be replaced with another set from outside the firm.
In GD SSD's case, to get the division back on track, the management
team will have to concentrate hard on the technical problems with
the Atlas Centaur, as well as in selling Atlas services.  This would
indicate only another firm with experience in rocket launch
operations could find such talent in-house, and be able to convince
customers to buy their launch services.  Optimally, the firm would
have substantial liquid rocket experience, and experience in
marketing space technology internationally as well.  Candidates for
this might be TRW, Rockwell, Lockheed, and Martin, and possibly
McDonnell Douglas and Boeing.  But most of those firms have cash
flow problems (MDC), have had a substantial business contraction
(Boeing and MDC), are involved with other launch firms (Lockheed),
or have taken on substantial debt (Martin).  And coming up with the
$700-1500 M purchase price for the division is a big chunk of
change for any company.]

5 - ARIANE PREDICTS DIP IN LAUNCH DEMAND
   Arianespace, the operator of the Ariane launch system, is
projecting a dip in launch demand in the late 1990's.  In early
February, Arianespace released their annual market survey, which
detailed their projection of the space transportation market for the
next decade.
   Over short run, Arianespace expects to retain their dominant
position and sustain a majority share of the launch market.  Of 54
international and commercial launches planned through 1995, Ariane
holds contracts for 31, General Dynamics' Atlas vehicle holds 14
contracts, McDonnell Douglas' Delta holds 7, and Great Wall's Long
March vehicle holds 2 launch contracts.
   Three-quarters of future launch contracts for which Ariane can
compete are projected to come from communications satellites with
the remaining 25% split between weather, Earth observation, and
scientific satellites.  Most of the future telecommunications demand
growth is predicted to come from the Asia/Pacific region.
   Arianespace expects the current market consolidation of
individual satellite operators into regional or national groups will
continue, with these groups investing in heavier satellites with
larger communications payloads carrying more transponders.
Arianespace predicts the average mass of telecommunications
satellites should increase by 20 % over today's average level, to
about 3000 kg in GEO.
   Demand for commercial launch services is expected to remain
strong over the next three years, but in the second half of the
decade, Arianespace predicts demand will decrease.  Arianespace
bases this prediction upon a matching of satellite transponder
demand and supply,  particularly as new data compression techniques
appear to could double or triple transponder capacity using existing
or near-term transponders.
   One of the significant possible changes in the market was
identified as the arrival of new launch vehicles, including Russian
launch systems.  But Arianespace predicts that in the long term,
investors purchasing launch services are looking for the best trade
off between launch service quality and price, and that Russian and
other new launch services will have to prove out their capabilities
and service quality, and their market penetration will be minimal.
   [Commentary:  Ariane releases their market surveys annually, and
I reported on their prior market survey in a past issue of CSN/STI.
Comparing the two surveys, there aren't outstanding differences in
the numbers.   The most notable change is the consideration of new
data compression techniques, reducing the demand for new physical
transponders on orbit.
   I note that in contrast to some predictions, demand for space-
based communications transponders appears to be remain strong. While
fiber optic lines are making substantial inroads into the
established point-to-point telecommunications markets, growing
demand for telecommunications services world wide and for point-to-
multipoint broadcast services have prevented a decrease in space
transponder demand.  Fiberoptic cables provide a higher capability
service, but only from established point A to established point B.
To establish a fiberoptic link it is necessary to install cable
between the points, and while there are improved network solutions,
installing a large network of distributed fiberoptic links can cost
millions or billions of dollars.
   For broadcast services where there is not an existing ground
network structure, satellites still offer the most cost effective
solution.  And if new services are required into a new region, it is
cheaper to install a small satellite link costing only a few tens of
thousands of dollars and tie into the existing global satellite
network.  This allows rapid growth of new satellite services, and
has kept demand high.  The replacement market for fiberoptics is
growing as well, since as demand grows between the points serviced,
it becomes cost effective to later install a fiberoptic link to
handle the increase in traffic.
   Since the telecommunications and data transfer markets are still
growing rapidly, satellite market projections remain rosy.  But
satellites are also getting longer orbital lifetimes.  Current
generation satellites are now getting guarantees of at 15 years of
on-orbit service or more, in contrast to 10 years of service from
last generation's satellites.  This has cut back some of the launch
demand, as satellite owners are rescheduling replacement satellite
launches over longer intervals.
   And as last note; Arianespace didn't flag it this year, but it
looks like the space transportation market will be rather over-
supplied by existing launch systems in the near term.  The annual
commercial launch demand is for about 15-20 medium sized satellites
per year.  From the supply side, Ariane is capable of launching up
to about a dozen medium sized satellites a year, Delta is capable of
about 9-12 per year, Atlas is capable of 6-12, Long March 4-8,
Japan's H-Vehicle 2-4, Russia's Proton capable of 8, and other
systems such as Zenit and Soyuz another 10-20 medium launches per
year.  That's a lot of capability for a small market.
   We can only expect the competition to intensify for commercial
launches.]

6- NTSB INVESTIGATES PEGASUS LAUNCH OVER ABORTED ABORT
   The 9 Feb Pegasus launch by Orbital Sciences Corporation has
spawned an investigation over an apparent violation of range safety
rules.  A valid abort order from a NASA range safety officer to halt
the mission was overridden and the Pegasus was launched in violation
of range safety rules.
   In the last few minutes of the Pegasus launch countdown, one of
two abort command receivers aboard the Pegasus failed.  Such a failure
typically scrubs a launch,and a NASA range safety officer at
Wallops Island, VA issued a mission abort order about a minute
before the scheduled Pegasus launch.  Somehow this command was
overridden by the OSC launch team or the message was lost in the
communications channels, and the Pegasus was launched despite the
valid abort call.
   Fortunately, the Pegasus functioned as expected, and the abort
command receiver was not needed.  But this incident did spark an
investigation since a valid abort order was given under agreed-to
launch constraint rules, and was not obeyed.
   Leading the investigation is the National Transportation Safety
Board (NTSB) with support from NASA, OSC, and the Air Force.  This
investigation marks the first time NTSB has taken the lead on an
incident involving a space launch.  According to the NTSB, their
investigation will take about 6 months, and is primarily looking at
lines of authority, communications links and safety procedures used
in the launch.
  [Commentary: This is the first time that the NTSB has led an
investigation into a space launch.  Their leadership was requested
by the Department of Commerce's Office of Commercial Space
Transportation, who had licensed the commercial launch.
   At the time of writing this column, some of the initial
investigations have been concluded, and some of the results are
starting to leak out into the trade press.  Apparently, 3 or four
different communications channels were in use during the test. After
the abort destruct receiver stopped responding, the NASA test
director and range controller in the Mission Control room at Wallops
Island gave abort orders about a minute before the launch.
According to the mission rules, this should have stopped the launch.
Somehow, the OSC test conductor ordered the abort reversed, and the
NASA communicator on the net relayed that order to the B-52 carrying
the Pegasus at about 22 seconds before launch.  Differing
explainations of exactly how this happened are proposed -- with the
best set being that clear lines of communications and clear
definition of the responsibilities of the mission control team, and
understanding of the mission rules were not established before the
launch.
   As we see more and more commercial launches, more of these
procedural issues are going to crop up and will have to be resolved.
This case is interesting because it is the first time the NTSB has
been called in to investigate a commercial launch problem (as they
do with commercial aircraft problems).
   I think this problem will turn out to be primarily problems with
procedures and communications, and will be cleared up with issuance
of guidelines on how launch communications should be set up and how
specific lines of authority should be delineated.]

7- ANOTHER PEGASUS COMPETITOR IS ANNOUNCED
   Tsniimach Enterprise in Russia announced it is marketing a new
small space launch system, based upon converted ICBM components.
Two versions of the launcher are being marketed: the "Aerokosmos"
winged vehicle launched like the OSC Pegasus, and the "Severkosmos",
launched from a mobile ground transporter.  The Aerokosmos is
projected to deliver 900 kg to a 200 km circular orbit or 580 kg to
an 800 km circular orbit, and the Severkosmos to be capable of 430
kg to 200 km orbits and 225 kg to 800 km.  Also proposed to be used
with these launch systems is a LEO data relay system called
'Sineva'.  Tsniimach Enterprise is described as a ex-military
establishment, focusing on aerodynamics and thermal protection of
spacecraft and which has participated in the development of the
Buran shuttle system,  They are located near the NPO Energia
facility in Kaliningrad, outside of Moscow.
   [Commentary: There's very little released information on this new
venture.  My suspicion is it is another Russian enterprise looking
for hard currency and trying to capitalize upon their in-house
knowledge of ex-Soviet launch systems.  It adds to the list of numerous
commercial space startups announced from the ex-Soviet Union.
   This one's a little different in that they are offering variants
of ex-Soviet ICBMs, but I can't identify any key customers being
targeted or substantial financial backing.]

8- GEORGIA LAUNCH SITE DROPPED FROM PLANNING
   In late January, Georgia Tech Research Institute released the
results of a preliminary study on the feasibility of a commercial
rocket launching site in Camden County, Georgia at the old Kingsland
Missile Test Launching Site on the Atlantic coast.  The preliminary
study recommended the site not be pursued as a commercial launch
site, stating reopening the site was not feasible due to projected
low investment returns, plus environmental and other geographic
considerations.  However, the report did say the site might be ideal
for other aerospace uses, and recommended other potential uses.
   [Commentary:  This should put the nails in the coffin of the
Kingsland Commercial Launch Site.  While other sites are still
proceeding with commercial launch site development plans, Kingsland
found without a key customer to act as anchor tenant, and if
substantial infrastructure had to be put in, then the expected
returns were too low to justify the cost of development.
   This might point out some key discriminators in judging the
feasibility of a commercial launch site.  These include:
  - Is there an identified key customer to provide core usage
sufficient to recover setup costs?
  - Is there a market advantage of using the site?
  - Can existing infrastructure be used or modified at the site?
  - Can financing be found at low enough cost to support the
investment?
   Other commercial launch site ventures -- including those at
Woomera, Poker Flat, Cape York, White Sands, Alabama Off-Shore
Platform, Hawaii, and Vandenberg have to also be judged against
these criteria.  In my opinion, some of these ventures are flying
on hope and speculation, and not on sound financial grounds.]

9- SPAIN'S CAPRICORNIA LAUNCHER STILL PROCEEDING
   In one of his last official acts, former President Bush
authorized space technology transfer for several joint space
ventures between US and other firms.  One of these was a proposed
use of US technology by Spain to build a small booster.  With that
regulatory impediment removed, the 3-stage Capricornia launch
vehicle will start development later this year, planning for a first
launch in the 1995/96 time period.  The Capricornia is described as
a small 3-stage all solid booster designed to put 250-500 Kg into
LEO.  Several launch sites are being examined for the system,
including 2 on the Iberian peninsula and 1 on the Canary Islands.
Originated by INTA in Spain, the project reports it has $ 30 M in
development funding, and will use technology from Argentina's Condor
launch vehicle as well as from the US.
   [Commentary:  Several firms have identified a market opportunity
in providing a small launcher for the European market.  Small
payloads from European firms or organizations currently use either
Ariane piggyback launches or the US/Italian Scout launcher.
However, Ariane piggyback opportunities are limited, and the Scout
program is being phased out (accompanied by some disarray in the
Italian government and space industry regarding any follow-on
system).
   This has left an apparent niche for a new European small launch
system.  Surprisingly enough, ESA has not supported development of
such a system within the current space funding structure.  Studies
have been performed by British Aerospace, Aerospatiale, Deutsche
Aerospace, and Italian organizations, but with the exception of the
Swedish/PacAstro system (reported below), I have not been able to
find any other European development work with even a rumor of
funding for hardware.
   Also of interest is the linking of the Capricornia to the
Argentinian Condor launcher.  There have been some interesting
rumors surfacing out of Argentina over the past year about a space
launcher/IRBM program funded under the military junta which ruled
the country in the 1970's and early 1980's.
   What is known is in Feb 1992, the Argentinian Air Force formally
transferred control of the Condor 2 missile program to the new
civilian Argentinian national space agency (Comison Nacional de
Atividades Espaciales - CNAE).  The Condor 2 program was described
as originating in 1983, expanding upon the smaller Condor 1 rocket
program in collaboration with Egypt and with support of German
firms.  The Condor 2 was also reportedly funded indirectly by Iraq
in the mid-1980's.  Fairly large solid rocket motors were built and
tested, but Argentinan development of a suitable guidance package
lagged that of the propulsion system.
   It should be noted CNAE is planning to launch its first
scientific satellite in late 1994.  The US$ 9 M, 181 Kg, SAC-B
satellite will study the Earth's upper atmosphere and includes
cooperative experiments from Italy and the US. No launch vehicle has
yet been selected, but OSC's Pegasus and the Russian Burlak Air
launched rocket are reported to be strong contenders for this
contract.]

10- PACASTRO SIGNS LAUNCH RESERVATION WITH SWEDISH SPACE CORP
   PacAstro, a small launch firm in Herndon, Virginia announced in
late February it had received a $6 M launch reservation contract
from the Swedish Space Corp to launch a satellite on PacAstro's PA-2
launch vehicle.   This will be performed as part of the Polar
Satellite Service (PSS), a joint Norwegian Space Center/ Swedish
Space Corp. program to upgrade the Andoya Rocket Range in Norway and
offering small satellite launches into the polar regions.  According
to PacAstro, PSS is also performing an $8 M upgrade of the Andoya
launch facilities, including a new integration facility and a fully-
enclosed vertical assembly building for small launch vehicles like
the PacAstro PA-2.  PacAstro has been chosen as "the main
alternative rocket supplier" for the small satellite launch service
to be offered by PSS from Andoya.  The date of the launch of the
Swedish satellite was not specified.
   [Commentary:  PacAstro has been trying to line up customers and
funding for their launch vehicle for some time now.  The PA-2 is a

small, two stage rocket fueled by RP-1 and Liquid Oxygen.  From
PacAstro's literature, the engines designed for the PA-series
rockets are built of "off the shelf" components based upon the Lunar
MOdule Descent Engines built by TRW, and are capable of putting a
225 Kg satellite into a 750 km circular polar orbit.
   PacAstro is trying to arrange construction financing for its
first three PA-2 vehicles, with a first launch planned for 1995, and
2 orbital launches planned for 1996.  My records show PacAstro hired
TRW to provide marketing support and systems design,  with primary
engineering to be done by AeroAstro, a small satellite builder
closely associated with PacAstro (headquartered in the same
building).  The Swedish Space Corporation would supply engineering,
launch operations, vehicle subsystems, and marketing support.
Sumitomo Corp. of Tokyo, is a first round investor and sits on the
board of directors.
   PacAstro has gotten a first round financial package of at least
$550 K  (Some sources place this of high as $1 M), but has been
searching for about a year for the additional $20-30 M needed to
design, build and launch their first set of vehicles.
   The launch reservation from SSC can possibly be used to help
bring some investors on board, but by my estimate, they will need
much more than the single $6 M sale to put their venture into real
hardware.]

11- CHINA AND TAIWAN JOINT SATELLITE VENTURE REPORTED
    In early March, it was reported a joint satellite communications
venture between a Taiwanese and mainland Chinese was in the works.
As reported in the Taipei press, China Development Corp. (CDC),
headquartered in Taiwam and with links to the ruling Nationalist
Party, is planning to set up a joint venture in Hong Kong with China
Great Wall Industry Corp. with the objective of launching a regional
communications satellite. CDC would cover about 10% of the satellite
system cost (US $10 M) in exchange for rights to 10% of the
satellite's communications channels.
   [Commentary:  This announcement came close on the heels of the
release of Taiwanese plans for space development (released in mid
January).   In those plans, the National Space Program Office of
Taiwan will launch 3 satellites, starting with ROCSAT-1, a 400 Kg
scientific spacecraft, planned for launch in 1997.  Two additional
satellites are planned, both communications satellites.   TRW has
been helping Taiwan plan this program, budgeted at T$13.6 B (US $530
M) through 2006.
   I haven't been able to establish any relationship between this
venture and those of the NSPOT, but there might be a connection.
While Taiwan has the financing to pursue several ventures, the
current Taiwanese telecommunications market might not support two
separate sastellite ventures.
   The reported name for the Tiawanese/Chinese system is "Asiasat-
2", but I don't thinks this has any relationship with the existing
Hong Kong-based "Asiasat" program involving Chinese, Hong Kong, and
other Asian investors, other than using it as an organizational
model.  There are some obvious advantages to pursuing such a joing
venture -- it could provide excellent first-hand experience to
Taiwan for a very low cost, which then can be used in later
satellite ventures.  But there are internal political issues between
Taiwanese and Chinese ventures, but putting any joint venture
through a  Hong Kong intermediary corporation might allow it to
proceed.
   In any case, the East Asian satellite market is lighting up with
substantially growth projected in space services and revenues.  This
is just another indicator to add to the list.]

12- SOUTH KOREA ANNOUNCES NATIONAL MOVE INTO SPACE TECHNOLOGIES
   South Korea's Trade, Industry and Resources Ministry recently
announced plans to invest US$22 B in research and development and
another US$17 B into manufacturing and research facilities for
advanced aerospace technologies.  Space technologies have been
specifically targeted as part of this program, beginning with
manufacture and launch of an advanced multi-purpose satellite by
1997.  The objective of this investment is to raise South Korea's
aerospace technology to the level of the world's top 10 countries by
2000.
   [Commentary: South Korea has been quietly working to develop its
national aerospace industry, specifically including space
activities. I'm noting this as a flag that potential new players are
coming into the commercial space market.
   As part of their national effort, 2 national telecommunications
satellites for Korea Telecom will be launched in April and Oct 1995
on Delta. Designated Koreasat 1 and 2, the platforms will provide
television and telephone service throughout the Korean Peninsula,
southwestern Japan and portions of China bordering North Korea.
   South Korea launched its first small satellite piggyback on
Ariane in Aug 1992, called Uribyol-1 (Our Star) and costing about US
$8.8 M.  Uribyol-2 is planned for piggyback launch in October of
this year, again on Ariane, and will be entirely "made in Korea."
Uribyol-3, projected for a 1995 launch, will be an environment-
monitoring micro-satellite.
   This satellite may be the precursor to a series of small Earth
observation satellites,  The KEOS (Korean Earth Observation System)
project, which has been submitted for approval to the South Korean
government, would use two or three 300-kg spacecraft equipped with
optical and microwave sensors.
   South Korean press reports claim there is also a parallel
military effort to establish the capabilities for building and
launching small military satellites by 2001.  Supposedly a
government panel had been established to oversee such an effort,
funded at US $ 500 M between 1993 and 2001, in anticipation of an
expected pullout of U.S. intelligence-gathering systems from the
Korean peninsula.
   In conjunction with all of these reported efforts, South Korean
is also pursuing production work either as off-sets to existing
aerospace technology contracts (for example, McDonnell Douglas is
offsetting production of some Delta parts to South Korean firms as
part of the Koreasat launch contracts), or for production of
consumer space items (among other products, South Korea exports
satellite receiver television setups to Japan, and Samsung has
announced teaming for production of OSC's Orbcomm user terminals.).
   This looks like a very aggressive push into space technologies.
Considering that East Asia is currently the fastest growing sector
for commercial space services (primarily for telecommunications), a
South Korean push into space technologies may change the composition
of commercial space market there over the next decade.]

13- SPACE TECHNOLOGY INDEXES THROUGH MARCH
   As announced in the last CSN/STI, each issue will give the
results of stock indexes and portfolios regarding space stocks and
investments.  The table below summarizes results to the end of
March.  The Space Technology Index did quite a bit better than the
market as a whole, as represented by the S&P 500 index.  Since 90+%
of the values included in the index are US firms, this represents a
general increase in the market value of space-related firms.  The
increase in the first quarter is more than in all of 1992 -- which
is a very promising sign, although future months may reverse this
trend. The Commercial Space Technology Index has also done quite
well, but the Pure Play portfolio -- consisting of stocks of firms
which are pure plays in space technologies -- has also surpassed its
results in all of 1993.  We'll keep an eye on these ....

   INDEX RESULTS THROUGH MARCH
                           Beginning  Beginning      1 Jan 93 to
                           1992       1993           31 Mar 1993
                           -------    --------       --------
   S&P 500                 416        436  (+4.7%)   452  (+3.7%)
   Space Tech Index        267        304 (+13.6%)   373 (+22.7%)
   Comm'l Space Tech Index 167        194 (+16.3%)   222 (+14.2%)
   Space Tech Pure Plays   147        169 (+15.4%)   197 (+16.2%)


FINAL NOTES -
    What?  This column's already full?  And I still have bunches of
commercial space developments to report on.  As I said at the start
of this, column there's been a lot of interesting happenings - but
I'll have to put them into the next issue.
   Looking ahead, I've got several articles in the works on new
happenings with Iridium and the LEO communications satellite market,
more news on international launchers appearing (and disappearing) on
the market, new international commercial space ventures,  and other
interesting developments.
   And as always, I hope you folks find this stuff useful and
interesting -- Any and all comments are welcome.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
Wales Larrison                          Space Technology Investor
"Felicitas multos habet amicos"             P.O. Box 2452
                                        Seal Beach, CA 90740-1452

------------------------------

Date: 23 Apr 93  21:17:38
From: [e-mail]
Subject: Space Advertising (2 of 2)
Newsgroups: sci.space

   Two developments have brought these type of activities back to
the forefront in 1993.  First, in February, the Russians deployed a
20-m reflector from a Progress vehicle after it had departed from
the Mir Space Station.  While this "Banner" reflector was blank,
NPO Energia was very active in reporting that future  Banner
reflectors will be available to advertisers, who could use a space-
based video of their logo or ad printed on the Banner in a TV
commercial, as filmed from the Mir.
   The second development, has been that Space Marketing Inc, the
same company responsible for merchandising space on the Conestoga
booster and COMET spacecraft, is now pushing the "Environmental
Billboard".  As laid out by SMI Chief Engineer Dr Ron Humble of the
University of Colorado Space Laboratory and Preston Carter of the
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, the "Environmental
Billboard" is a large inflatable outer support structure of up to
804x1609 meters.  Advertising is carried by a mylar reflective area,
deployed by the inflatable 'frame'.
   To help sell the concept, the spacecraft responsible for
maintaining the billboard on orbit will carry "ozone reading
sensors" to "continuously monitor the condition of the Earth's
delicate protective ozone layer," according to Mike Lawson, head of
SMI. Furthermore, the inflatable billboard has reached its minimum
exposure of 30 days it will be released to re-enter the Earth's
atmosphere. According to IMI, "as the biodegradable material burns,
it will release ozone-building components that will literally
replenish the ozone layer." The remaining spacecraft will monitor
the atmosphere for another year before it, too, re-enters and burns
up and "adds to the ozone supply."
   This would not be a cheap advertisement, costing at least several
millions of dollars (exact costs were not available).  But SMI
estimates that market exposure would be 3-5X that of the people who
watched the SuperBowl, where a 30-second advertising 'unit' cost
$600,000.  Since SMI is located in Atlanta, Georgia, it is being
promoted as being available in time for the opening of the 1996
Summer Olympics in Atlanta.

But back to Brian's questions:
>And does anyone have any more details other than what was in the WN
>news blip?  How serious is this project?  Is this just in the "wild
>idea" stage or does it have real funding?

    See above. As for serious -- if they can get $15-20 M or so (my
estimate of $5-10 for development costs and a flight unit, plus
$10-15 M for a launch), then it's probably real.  They are claiming to
tailor the orbit to overfly specific locations at specific times for
optimum advertising impact so they probably can't piggy back upon
someone else's planned launch and will have to buy a dedicated
launch.  That's a $10-15 M cost they need to raise, right there.
    And there will probably be some legal challenges to this as
well.  Note there is one potential legal challenge to SMI on the use
of launch vehicle advertising already.  While I don't think the
legal challenges would win out (and yes, I am an amateur astronomer,
and no, I don't really like the idea of this additional light
pollution, but I know of no prohibition of it...),  the legal
challenges and court fights would probably remove any positive
aspects of the advertising.  I can imagine several ways to make the
advertisers look like louts for doing this -- which would change
positive market exposure to negative market exposure, and negate the
space advertising advantage.  (Would you spend $15 M to look like an
idiot?)
   (And light pollution might not be too bad -- if it's in a low
enough orbit, and it relies upon reflected light only, it would
only be visible for a short time just after local dusk and before
dawn.  For maximum market exposure, you want to have it visible just
after dusk --minimizing impact on astronomy, since that's the time
of worse seeing due to day/night thermal turbulence.  It might still
be a problem, but perhaps there are ways to mitigate this...)
    As for having real funding -- none that I can identify.  There
were about 60 expressions of interest made on the Conestoga
advertising opportunity, but that included curious folks and was for
only a $500,000 commitment.  I haven't heard of any serious funding
for this, but I'm sure they are shopping the venture around looking
for some money in order to flesh out the concept some more.  But I
am confident there are no firm or paying customers at this time.

   And if anybody wants to cross-post this to sci.astro, please be
my guest.  I don't have posting privileges to that area (or at least
I don't THINK I do...).
 -------------------------------------------------------------------
 Wales Larrison                            Space Technology Investor

--- Maximus 2.01wb

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End of Space Digest Volume 16 : Issue 489
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